Tech Hiring 2025: Market Reality

Just read Gergely Orosz's deep dive on the current state of tech interviews - seriously, go read the full post, it's packed with insights from thousands of real interview experiences. The numbers paint a clear picture of where we stand. Here's what jumped out at me from his analysis.

Where We Stand

We peaked at 500,000 open positions during 2020-21 - that was the applicant-friendly paradise. Today we're at 230,000 openings, which is 46% up from the bottom. That sounds positive until you realize we're still operating at less than half of peak levels.

The market is recovering, but that's about the only good news for job seekers. Everything else has gotten significantly harder.

The New Reality

Core domains are brutal. Companies have become extremely selective for frontend, backend, and mobile roles. They aren't just looking for good developers - they want exact skill matches and proven experience in their specific tech stack. The expectations have risen significantly - what got you hired in 2021 might not even pass the screening today.

AI is where candidates have leverage. ML infrastructure, AI ops, and GenAI development are where engineers can still negotiate multiple offers with aggressive comp packages. But here's the catch - to get proven track record in these areas, you typically need to already work at tier-1 companies. It's an elite club that's nearly impossible to break into without the right pedigree.

Big names matter more than ever. In this oversaturated market, prestige of previous employers plays a huge role. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic heavily filter by pedigree - candidates from elite companies, AI startups, and prestigious universities get first pick. This creates a vicious cycle where you need the right background to get the most in-demand skills.

Downleveling is everywhere. With heightened expectations, candidates are routinely getting offers a level below their current position. That promotion you were expecting? Prepare to spend 2-3 years earning back your current level.

Engineering management got restructured. The whole layer has been optimized. Today's EMs need system design skills, hands-on coding ability, leadership capabilities, AND align technical implementation with company vision. It's no longer just people management.

Interview processes are diverging. Big tech won't change their hiring systems - they work for them and have years of calibration data. But startups and smaller companies are experimenting with more practical assessments, even allowing AI tools in take-home projects. If this approach proves successful, we might see bottom-up changes in hiring practices.

What to Do About It

The game has fundamentally changed, and your strategy needs to change with it.

Accept the new time reality. Job searching and interview prep now require significantly more time investment than in previous years. Budget accordingly - this isn't the 2021 market where good engineers got offers after casual interviews.

Go targeted, not spray-and-pray. Mass applications don't work anymore. Focus on roles where you're genuinely a strong fit. Tailor your approach for each application and actually engage with recruiters.

Do honest skill gap analysis. With the higher bar everywhere, actively identify and fill gaps in your skillset before you need to job hunt. Don't wait until you're desperate.

Network strategically. In a pedigree-focused market, connections at target companies matter more than ever. This isn't just about getting referrals - it's about understanding what companies actually need. Engage with their LinkedIn posts, research their tech blogs, and follow their engineering updates to get real hints about their priorities and challenges.

Think long-term. With downleveling common, plan your 2-3 year trajectory, not just the next role. What you do and who you work for matters immensely for future opportunities.

Consider the startup route. If you're being filtered out by big tech pedigree requirements, smaller companies with practical assessments might be your path in. They're often more willing to evaluate real problem-solving skills over algorithm memorization.

The market might be tougher, but at least we know the rules. The good news? The rulebook is public. With enough deliberate practice and the right strategy for your level, you can still win.

What patterns are you seeing in your domain? How has the hiring landscape changed for you?